Sometimes analysts draw paradoxical conclusions. According to Bloomberg, developed economies such as the US and EU countries could avoid a recession and smoothly shift to lowering interest rates if the global oil price drops to $60 per barrel. Does it make sense?

This scenario is realistic, especially given the current trends in the oil market. Notably, on Tuesday, September 10, Brent crude futures sank below $70 per barrel for the first time since 2021. Market participants expect the downtrend to accelerate further.

Against this backdrop, the ECB may venture into a second rate cut, and the Federal Reserve could begin an easing cycle next week. Analysts point out that updated oil price forecasts reinforce the determination of regulators.

In this scenario, experts at JPMorgan and Citigroup anticipate the bear trend in the oil market in 2025. A key factor here is the slowdown in the global economy, exacerbated by increased commodity supply. In this context, a drop in oil prices to $60 per barrel would benefit the US and European economies. Adjusted for inflation, in the meantime, crude oil is trading at the level seen 20 years ago, when China was just beginning to experience buoyant demand for petroleum products.

Experts suggest that the stimulus effect on developed economies may not be visible. However, many households are expected to feel the benign impact of lower inflation. This, in turn, could boost real incomes and increase consumption activity, experts believe.

Recently, for the first time in a long while, OPEC and its allies have struggled to agree on a strategy on the back of the ongoing fall in oil prices. Right after announcing plans to increase production quotas, the decision was postponed for two months. As of now, the situation remains unclear, and it is unknown what measures will be taken by the participants in the pact. The cartel's key problem is the rise in oil output rates outside of OPEC. With such developments, the cartel could lose its share of the hydrocarbon market.