今日,歐元兌美元(EUR/USD)匯率自1月17日創下的月內高點回落,目前交易價格約為1.1428,較當前交易時段開始時下跌了超過0.50%。
此次下跌的主要原因是市場對美元需求的增加。投資者擔心美國總統特朗普的貿易關稅政策可能重新引發通脹恐慌,從而導致美國國債收益率的略微上升。這也支撐了美元指數的堅挺增長,此前美元指數在上一個交易日達到了月內低點,對歐元兌美元匯率形成壓力。
此外,特朗普最近威脅對多國加徵關稅,其中包括墨西哥、加拿大、中國和歐盟。這一局勢,加上市場預期歐洲央行(ECB)在即將召開的貨幣政策會議上降息,對歐元造成負面影響,進一步促使EUR/USD下跌。
然而,在主要央行事件即將來臨之前,看跌情緒可能仍會受到壓制。美聯儲預計將在週三宣布其貨幣政策決定,隨後週四將召開歐洲央行會議。這些事件可能會對EUR/USD匯率的走勢產生重大影響。
今日週二,交易者應重點關注美國宏觀經濟數據,特別是消費者信心指數,以便尋找更佳的交易機會。
從技術角度來看,目前尚未能確證一個成熟的看跌趨勢,因為相對強弱指數(RSI)尚未進入負值區。此外,14日EMA仍低於9日EMA,這表明目前的下跌更可能是修正性的。
根據基本面情況,等待更強的賣壓動能來確認EUR/USD從月低和多月下行趨勢的近期反彈已經到位是較為謹慎的做法。
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*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。
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