16.04.2025 05:12 AM昨日，歐元區4月份的ZEW經濟景氣指數令人失望。該指數從3月份的39.8暴跌至-18.5，遠低於預測的13.2。我們認為，歐洲商業界對貿易戰的後果持有比媒體所示更為現實的看法，並對提升國防生產的「預算外」計劃持懷疑態度。我們此前曾表示，美國可能是貿易戰的主要受益者。因此，我們認為，整個4月份歐元的上漲是投機性的，並預計一旦出現合適的催化劑，歐元將會下跌。
首個這樣的催化劑可能是明天的歐洲中央銀行貨幣政策會議。我們預計央行將採取更果斷的立場，以支持經濟並應對通脹放緩。今天預測3月份的CPI為年率2.2%，而2月份為2.3%。核心CPI預計將從年率2.6%放緩至2.4%。
理想的歐元反轉點是1.1535的目標。如果在歐洲中央銀行會議當天波動性增加，可能達到這一水平，並可能在日線圖上形成看跌背離。如果沒有向上價格尖峰，跌破1.1110/50的支撐區域將發出反轉信號。
價格在四小時圖表上從1.1276支撐位反彈。Marlin振盪指標正在突破進入正趨勢區域，表明上升趨勢仍然完好。
在這個時間框架內，Kijun（MACD）線已經移動到1.1110/50支撐區域，強化了其作為潛在中期反轉區域的重要性。
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