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07.03.2023 08:12 AM
The US dollar index slipped below 104.00 in the early Asia session on Tuesday. After carving an intraday low of 103.78, the index is seen to be trading above 103.85 at this point in writing. Bears are looking inclined to drag lower toward 103.20-25 in the near term before finding some bids coming.
The US dollar index has carved a meaningful larger degree bearish boundary between 114.70 and 100.50 in the past several weeks. Since then, the index has been retracing higher and is projected toward 106.50 at least. In fact, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the above bearish boundary is seen passing through 109.30, which could be the second target.
The US dollar index has carved its first wave of the above corrective rally between 100.50 and 105.00. It is currently progressing lower towards 103.25 and up to 102.50 levels as the second wave unfolds. We can expect a rally toward 106.50 and 109.30 levels thereafter. Ideally, prices stay above 100.50 interim support.
Potential near-term drop to 103.25 and 102.50 before the rally resumes.
Good luck!
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