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03.01.2025 01:21 PM
For the second consecutive session, the Australian dollar continues its rise against the US dollar. This strengthening is attributed to expectations of interest rate cuts in China, which could benefit the Australian economy and foster the development of close trade ties between the two countries. Stimulus measures, such as increased funding through long-term treasury bonds, may boost economic activity in China, in turn supporting demand for Australian commodities like oil and gold.
Rising commodity prices have significantly influenced the Australian dollar, as reflected in the growth of shares of resource extraction companies, including Woodside Energy and Northern Star Resources. The release of data on the state of China's manufacturing sector also contributes to the Australian dollar's growth, driven by industrial expansion and regional economic development.
Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of the US Manufacturing PMI, whose results could affect currency rates. Given the data from China and prospects for improved economic conditions, many experts predict further long-term growth for the Australian dollar.
From a technical standpoint, the Australian dollar is holding its position above 0.6200, near the nine-day EMA, while maintaining a bearish outlook as it remains within a descending channel on the daily chart. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is emerging from the oversold zone, indicating potential for a short-term correction despite the prevailing downward trend.
The nearest resistance is at the nine-day EMA, with the next barrier being the 14-day EMA. The key resistance level is the psychological 0.6300 level, situated at the upper boundary of the descending channel. Conversely, the AUD/USD pair could continue moving toward the lower boundary of the downward channel.
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