Veja também
19.11.2024 10:27 AM
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 ended Monday's trading in the "green zone," recouping some of their previous losses. Investors turned their attention to Nvidia's (NVDA.O) earnings call, while Tesla's (TSLA.O) shares rose sharply on expectations of favorable policy changes from the new Trump administration.
Nvidia is set to report third-quarter financial results on Wednesday, with investors awaiting answers to a key question: whether strong demand for chips is continuing and whether the AI euphoria that has driven growth this year is sustaining the market.
The company, which has accounted for about 20% of the S&P 500's earnings over the past 12 months, is expected to post 25% EPS growth in the third quarter, according to analysts at BofA Global Research. However, Nvidia shares fell 1.3% after reports of new AI chips overheating in server systems.
"Nvidia is the last of the Magnificent Seven to report quarterly results. While we are seeing revenue and interest pick up, the current level of expectations is not as high as it was a quarter or two ago," said Carol Schleif, chief investment officer at BMO Family Office.
Tesla shares have soared, reflecting positive market sentiment about possible policy changes associated with the new administration. Such growth underscores investors' desire to seize opportunities in a rapidly changing environment.
The sentiment around Nvidia and Tesla in the coming days may become an indicator of the future direction of the market, which promises many surprises for traders.
Trading on the US stock market on Monday ended with mixed dynamics of key indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) lost 55.39 points (-0.13%) to end at 43,389.60. At the same time, the S&P 500 (.SPX) added 23.00 points (+0.39%) to end at 5,893.62, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) rose 111.69 points (+0.60%) to end at 18,791.81.
The energy sector (.SPNY) led the S&P 500, rising 1.05%. Consumer discretionary stocks (.SPLRCD) followed suit, adding 1.04%. Tesla was in the spotlight, with shares jumping 5.6% after Bloomberg's report.
Donald Trump's transition team is reportedly considering loosening regulations on self-driving cars, fueling investor interest.
Meanwhile, industrials (.SPLRCI) were among the laggards, posting the biggest declines among sectors.
In notable corporate news, CVS Health (CVS.N) shares rose 5.4%. The jump was the result of the company announcing it would expand its board by adding four new members as part of a deal with Glenview Capital Management.
Carol Schleiff, chief investment officer at BMO Family Office, said, "There could be significant volatility in some sectors right now until we hear more details about the decisions of the new Trump team, which is expected later this month."
Despite a correction following the sharp post-election rally, sentiment on Wall Street remains positive.
The year 2024 is drawing to a close, demonstrating the resilience of the U.S. stock market, although its future direction will depend on political decisions and new macroeconomic factors.
U.S. stock indexes ended last week with the largest losses in the last two months. Investors are worried about the slowdown in the pace of easing by the Federal Reserve, as well as uncertainty around Donald Trump's appointments to his administration.
The start of the week coincided with an active holiday shopping season, which shifts the market's focus to the largest retail players. Walmart (WMT.N), Lowe's Companies (LOW.N) and Target (TGT.N) are preparing to release their results, which will become an indicator of the state of American consumer demand.
On the New York Stock Exchange, gainers outnumbered decliners 1.71 to 1, with 159 new yearly highs and 88 new yearly lows.
On the Nasdaq, the picture was balanced, with 2,158 gainers and 2,150 decliners. The S&P 500 posted 29 new yearly highs and 13 new yearly lows, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 69 new yearly highs and 265 new yearly lows.
Trading volume on U.S. exchanges totaled 14.94 billion shares, exceeding the 20-day average of 14.12 billion. This activity indicates that traders are paying close attention to market events.
Global markets were positive on Monday, with stocks rising while the US dollar slipped, although it remains close to its yearly peaks. Investors moderated expectations about the Federal Reserve's next move, easing some of the pressure on the currency.
The holiday season is coming, and its outcome is expected to add clarity to the overall picture of the US economy.
US President-elect Donald Trump is busy building his team, filling important positions in the areas of health care and defense. However, key appointments for financial markets – the Treasury Secretary and the Trade Representative – remain open, adding uncertainty to the outlook.
The incoming Trump administration is expected to focus on two priorities: tax cuts and higher tariffs. Economists say such measures could trigger higher inflation, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates.
The U.S. Treasury yield market has seen yields fall amid heightened volatility. The benchmark 10-year note has lost 1 basis point to 4.416%.
"The 10-year yield reflects budget and deficit concerns, and signals underlying inflation risks if new tariffs are imposed," said Wasif Latif, president and chief investment officer at Sarmaya Partners.
The structure and scale of tariffs that the new administration may initiate have inflationary potential, according to Latif. "The bond market is sending a clear signal. The stock market may have paused last week, but today it seems to be riding a wave of optimism again," he said.
Investors continue to balance optimism over economic stimulus measures with concerns that new tariffs and rising inflation could complicate the Fed's monetary policy. In the coming weeks, attention will focus on filling key positions and the details of the Trump administration's economic strategy.
European stock markets ended the day lower, led by weakness in the real estate and utilities sectors. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index (.STOXX) lost 0.06%, reflecting a cautious investor mood.
Sentiment was more positive in global markets, with the MSCI World Index (.MIWD00000PUS), which tracks stocks around the world, rising 0.35% to 845.60. Nvidia (NVDA.O) earnings on Wednesday remain in focus.
Analysts expect strong revenue growth from the company, which continues to dominate the AI chip space. Nvidia shares have nearly tripled this year, becoming a key driver of the S&P 500's record highs.
The U.S. dollar rose 0.29% against the Japanese yen to 154.605. However, the dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, was down 0.51% at 106.19. Despite the decline, the currency remains close to its one-year high of 107.07, reflecting the overall strength of the U.S. economy.
Oil prices have shown a significant strengthening after the news of production suspension at Norway's largest Johan Sverdrup field.
Brent crude futures closed at $73.30 per barrel, up 3.2%. Similarly, WTI crude also gained 3.2%, closing at $69.16 per barrel.
Investors are eagerly awaiting earnings reports from Nvidia and other tech giants, which could set the tone for future market dynamics. The oil sector continues to react to geopolitical events, while currency traders will be watching for cues from the Federal Reserve.
Gold prices have rebounded after six straight days of declines. Spot gold rose 1.93% to $2,610.73 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures rose 1.7% to $2,614.60. The weakening U.S. dollar was the main driver of the precious metal's gains.
"Markets should be more stable this week as the flow of macro and policy news from the U.S. slows," said Jim Reed, head of global economics and thematic research at Deutsche Bank. The agenda continues to focus on the appointment of key figures in the new Donald Trump administration.
Goldman Sachs has updated its forecast for the S&P 500 (.SPX), expecting it to reach 6,500 by the end of 2025. This target implies growth of 10.3% from the current value of the index, which closed at 5,893.62.
Morgan Stanley has provided a similar forecast, suggesting that the S&P 500 will reach the same level by the end of next year. The bank bases its expectations on improving corporate earnings, easing of the Federal Reserve interest rate policy in 2024, and a strengthening business cycle.
Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the key drivers of the index's growth are the companies of the so-called "Magnificent Seven." These are Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta (banned in Russia), Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla. Experts are confident that these giants will outperform the other 493 companies in the S&P 500 in 2024.
The stabilization of the gold market, optimism about the growth of the stock index and the easing of the Fed policy next year create the basis for favorable conditions. However, markets remain sensitive to any new macroeconomic and political events that could change the current trajectory.
The shares of tech giants, known as the "Magnificent Seven", retain their leadership, but their gap with the rest of the S&P 500 index will shrink to 7 percentage points, the smallest in the last seven years, Goldman Sachs concluded in a research note published on Monday.
"While these companies' strong financial results support their outperformance, the impact of macroeconomic factors such as trade policy and economic growth rates strengthens the position of the other 493 companies in the S&P 500," Goldman analysts emphasized.
The company's forecasts include 11% growth in corporate earnings and a 2.5% increase in real US GDP by 2025.
Goldman Sachs also warned that the US stock market could face serious risks in 2025. Among them are the possible introduction of new tariffs and rising bond yields, which could put pressure on stocks.
On the other hand, a more accommodative fiscal policy or friendly measures from the Federal Reserve could stimulate further growth.
Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election brought clarity to the key directions of his economic program. Tax cuts and tariff hikes are the main promises that experts believe could accelerate inflation and limit the Fed's room to maneuver with interest rates.
Goldman expects S&P 500 earnings per share to rise to $268 by 2025. This figure reflects a positive but cautious view of corporate earnings prospects, given possible macroeconomic changes and political risks.
Investors are closely monitoring market dynamics, trying to find a balance between the opportunities presented by tech giants and the risks associated with changes in economic and trade policies. A difficult road lies ahead, in which it is important to consider both local and global factors.
You have already liked this post today
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
