Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 144.08 occurred when the MACD indicator started moving downward from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair fell by only 25 pips before the pressure eased. In the middle of the US session, there was a test of the 144.49 level, but it happened when the MACD indicator was already quite far from the zero line, limiting the upward potential. Therefore, I refrained from buying the dollar. Today's minutes of the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting helped the dollar rise further, indicating relatively solid chances for the pair's sustained upward correction. However, the higher it climbs, the more likely it is for major dollar sellers and yen buyers to return to the market, given that the central banks' policies are opposed. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on executing scenarios Nos. 1 and 2 again.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 145.04 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the level of 145.75 (thicker green line on the chart). At the 145.75 level, I intend to exit the buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the entry point). Today's rise in the pair can be expected as part of a correction. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 144.62 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. You can expect growth to the opposite levels of 145.04 and 145.75.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking below the 144.62 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 143.96 level, where I plan to exit the sell positions and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment, as the bearish market for the dollar hasn't disappeared. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 145.04 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 144.62 and 143.96.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line: The entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.

Thick green line: The estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line: The entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.

Thick red line: The estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator: When entering the market, it's important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner forex traders must make market entry decisions cautiously. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of significant fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in exchange rates. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without using stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, to trade successfully, you need a clear trading plan, similar to the example I've presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.